Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
